North Dakota’s previous gubernatorial election coincided with the 1920 presidential election, which may have increased turnout. history, compared with the previous regularly scheduled gubernatorial election Raw turnout and turnout rate (as a share of eligible voters) in the four gubernatorial recall elections in U.S. Turnout in governor recall elections is usually high history, turnout was higher than in the respective state’s previous gubernatorial election, though this is admittedly a very small sample size. In two of the three previous gubernatorial recall elections in U.S. Second, recall elections may inherently generate a lot of voter interest (which makes sense, given that there needs to be strong grassroots passion on at least one side to force a recall in the first place). First, under a pandemic-inspired voting law, every registered voter was automatically mailed a ballot - a reform that political scientists say can significantly increase turnout. But there are also other possible explanations for the recall’s high turnout. It’s possible that this eye-popping figure means the high level of interest voters had in the previous two elections (the 2020 election had the highest turnout for a presidential election in over a century) is here to stay. In fact, it’s higher than the 49 percent turnout in California’s regularly scheduled 2018 gubernatorial election, which was a historically high-turnout midterm. 2 That means more than 50 percent of California’s 26 million eligible voters cast a ballot - a remarkably high turnout rate for an off-year election. ![]() One thing we do know is that turnout was really high: More than 13 million people voted. After all, this was just one election and it was conducted under unusual circumstances to boot. But what they mean is very much up for interpretation - if they mean anything at all. ![]() To be sure, Newsom’s win was decisive, and with 89 percent of the votes now counted, 1 we can dive a little more into what the results mean. But we at FiveThirtyEight urge far more caution before taking away any national lessons from California Gov. ![]() Last Tuesday’s gubernatorial recall election in California was the campaign that launched a thousand takes: It was a good sign for Democrats in 2022 it was a good sign for Republicans in 2022.
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